Sunday, November 15, 2009

Savor It.

This is the best sports weekend in a long time:
  1. The Badgers rough up Michigan;
  2. Brandon Jennings does something that hasn't been done in over 40 years;
  3. The Packers beat the Cowboys.
Absent a championship, it really doesn't get any better.

We should all take time to enjoy it.

Better late than never...

If the Packers played like they did today, there are no games on the schedule that the Packers can't win.

Oh, there are also no games on the schedule than the Packers can't lose.

Instead of challenging whether Nelson scored a TD, why didn't McCarthy challenge the spot instead. The ball was spotted at the 1 yard line but the replay clearly showed that Nelson was at around the one foot line. McCarthy would have saved a TO, and would have had a challenge to use later.

The stats may not show it, but that may have been Rodgers' best game as a pro.

Is it realistic for me to hope for Woodson in the HOF?

Seriously guys, I can't let this go just yet. Jennings hit 10 shots in a row, and I don't think he even grazed the rim on his jump shots during that streak. Unreal.


Saturday, November 14, 2009

Ho! Lee! Crap!

Now that was something to see.

Just surreal.

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Could the Labor Negotiations Save the Packers from Rebuilding?

As I have posted before, the Packers seem headed for a 2-3 year rebuilding project. One important factor leading to this conclusion was that the Packers simply have too many players heading into free agency this off season and can't possibly sign them all.

If Florio is correct (and there is anywhere from a 10-30% chance he is), the equation could change. Namely, according to Florio the NFLPA is considering pushing restrict free agency out to 6 seasons for the upcoming season. This would affect 6 starters: Bigby, Collins, Jolly, Colledge, Spitz and Kuhn. All six are set to become unrestricted free agents, and I suspect some of these guys will garner quite a bit of interest from other teams. That's not to say that these players are elite players, but they will be very attractive free agents. (Elite players never make it to free agency. That is why every March we live in the Bizzaro World where Chris Canty is treated like the second coming of Bruce Smith.)

But if the Packers don't have to worry about losing the 5th year players, they can focus their attention on re-signing Pickett and Chillar, and would have the luxury of tagging Kampman and trading him to some place other than Minnesota.

Another option would be to tender and trade a player or two (a la Corey Williams) ---and Jolly would seem the most likely candidate---to help fill other needs.

Here's hoping Florio is not full of crap again.

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Friday, November 13, 2009

When did the Packers Become So Bush-League?

When did the Packers organization become so bush league? Did it happen overnight, or has it happened so slowly that nobody really noticed until it was too late.

It breaks my heart, but the Green Bay Packers, once considered a model for all professional sports teams is now completely bush league. In the last couple of months we have seen the organization stiff loyal fans who showed up to "Family" Night. And, we have seen the Director of Public Relations berate a journalist through his Twitter account.

Now, a 22-year part time employee gets kicked to the curb for a rather benign offhanded remark. When did the Packers organization become so thin-skinned?

I no longer think these are isolated events. The Packers organization seems as if it is run by a clique of bratty teenagers.

I also don't know what the solution is. This is not one of those fire _____ posts. The Packers culture---which has always been a source of pride---is broken right now.

How do you fix that?

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Thursday, November 12, 2009

No More Slants

According to Rodgers, teams have figured out how to shut down the slant pattern and that is why he is throwing down field so often.

I'm not sure I totally buy it. After 17 years of success teams have finally figured out how to shut down the slant pattern. It seems to me that receivers are often covered pretty tightly when they run the slant but that Packer QBs would still be able to jam it in there and let the receiver fight for the ball.

What is different this year?

Come on Silverstein: Try Harder.

Quoth Silverstein:

After games of 10.3, 9.7 and 12.3 in yards per attempt, he averaged 7 against Minnesota and 7.6 against Tampa Bay. You could assume from those numbers that Rodgers has been throwing deep less often and completing more of his passes in the short or medium ranges.

Well, technically, you could assume anything you want. So I guess "from a certain point of view" (Kenobi, 1983) Silverstein is doing a good job.

But there is no basis for the assumption that Silverstein makes. Yards per attempt will be affected by many other factors besides pass selection. Most critically, yards per completion will be affected by completion percentage. If you throw a 50 yard bomb on every play, and ultimately complete 15% of those passes, your "yards per attempt" with be 7.5. Jumping to Silverstein's assumption you would discern that 7.5 yards per attempt indicates that the QB is completing a lot of short passes. Clearly untrue.

Moreover, yards per attempt will be affected by a players yardage after catch. We saw this in the Cleveland game, in which Driver and Havner took short passes and ran them for 71 and 45 yard touchdowns, respectively.

As you see below, the biggest factor between games 4-6 and 7-8 appears to be completion percentage. My hunch is that Rodgers completion percentage is lower, at least in part, because he is airing out the ball even more rather than less.

Y/A C%
MIN 10.3 70.2
DET 9.7 78.4
CLE 12.3 75.0
MIN 7 63.4
TB 7.6 48.6

The only way to conclude what Silverstein feels comfortable "assuming" is to go back and review Rodgers pass selection. Which the AP did, and concluded that Rodgers is throwing deep more this year than ever.

As I, among many others, have said, McCarthy has got to bring the passing game back toward the line of scrimmage.