Thursday, March 12, 2009

How Many Wins Must the Packers Have Next Season to Save Thompson and McCarthy's Jobs?

On a message board that I occassionally visit, someone posed an interesting question: just how many wins will it take for McCarthy and Thompson to keep their jobs?

Thompson and McCarthy are on the hot seat.  There are some that might argue with me on this point, but they are wrong.  Consider this:

  • In 1989, Lindy Infante led the Packers to a surprising 10-6 and was named NFL Coach of the Year.
  • In 1991, after two disappointing seasons both Infante and GM Tom Bratz were shown the door.
Unless the Packers start winning, the 2007 season will be a distant memory come November.   Here are my predictions based upon nothing but my gut:

  • 100% chance that the two of them will be back if the team is 9-7 or better.
  • 70% chance that the two of them will be back in the team is 8-8.
  • 30% chance that the two will be back if the team is 7-9.
  • 0% chance (or close to it) that the two will be back if the team is 6-10 or worse.

Now a lot can happen and perhaps there will be some mitigating factors that will save Thompson and McCarthy even after a poor season, but don't count on it.  "Excuses"---even pretty good excuses---may not be enough to save McCarthy and Thompson.  For example, in Infante's case, it wasn't a good enough excuse that his starting QB was on the shelf with a blown rotator cuff.


1 comment:

  1. I don't think you can necessarily go by wins and losses. While 6 and under or 11 and over wins are pretty definitive, anything in the middle would require some judgment. Why did we lose the games we did, and when? Was it a result of the defense playing poorly early in the season? Was there improvement? Did we get blown out or were we in every game? I'll reserve my judgment until after I see what this team has to offer.