Thursday, April 16, 2009

The Brady Quinn Trade That Wasn't

Aaron on the "debacle" that wasn't:


The sting is still fresh for me from the Cleveland debacle a few years ago. Cleveland offered its first-round pick in 2008, and offered to flip picks with the Packers in rounds two, three and four all for the 16th overall pick in 2007. Thompson opted to sit tight and take Justin Harrell.

As a preliminary matter, Cleveland's first round pick in the 2008 draft turned into the 22nd pick. Also, a first round pick in next years draft is usually treated as a second round pick in this years draft. Thus (according to the trusty trade value chart) the 22nd pick in the 2008 draft would have been worth 360 points in the 2007 draft. The 16th pick in the 2007 draft (i.e., the Packers' pick) was worth 1000 points.

1000-360= 740.

Now let's add up all the swaps.

Second Round: 550-420 = 130
Third Round: 255-190 = 65
Fourth Round: 104-70 = 34

Add 'em up: 229.

740 > 229.

Q.E.D. The Packers were much better off not to make that deal.

How much better off?

Well, 740-229 = 511.

That point total is about the equivalent of the 11th pick in the second round in the 2007 draft. Put another way, in order to make the trade worthwhile for the Packers, the Browns would have needed to offer the equivilent of a second round pick in the 2007. And, whatayaknow that's exactly what they had to fork over to the Cowboys to ultimately swing the deal. Cool, huh?

Now, let's take a peek at the deal the Cowboys actually struck with the Browns. The Cowboys received the Browns 2008 first round pick plus the Brown second round pick in 2007 outright.

The Cowboys' 22nd pick was worth 780 points.

780 - 360 = 420. This is equivalent to the 16th pick in the second round. The Cowboys received the 3rd pick in the second round. The Cowboys came out a little ahead on the deal. The Packers would have come out way behind on the deal that the Browns offered.

4 comments:

  1. Mayock: Trade Chart 'Completely Out The Window'
    http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/ic/blogs/insider/2009/04/mayock-trade-chart-completely-out.html

    Cheers. :)

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  2. Also - you decry me for using the selection of Harrell in my reasoning for why the deal was bad, yet you're more than willing to use the Brown's eventual pick position. You can't have it both ways - everyone on Earth thought the Browns 1st round pick was going to be a Top 15 pick - Jerry Jones said as much. I thought passing up the opportunity to have two first round picks the following year, one that every league observer would be a high first rounder, was foolish. Heck, I still do.

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  3. Aaron: it's still really wouldn't matter. A first round pick is discounted a round when it is in the next year. Even the number one pick in the second round is 580 points, which would mean the trade would have left the Packers 191 points short. And not "everybody" assumed the Browns would pick high in 2008. The league is too unpredictable for that (no matter what Jerry Jones says).

    As far as the trade chart being "out the window"---I've seen those mutterings. Until someone comes up with a new system, it's still the best tool we have. Moreover, as I understand it, the idea was to change the top of the chart, not change round 2-7. In other words, it has zippy impact on my analysis.

    I'm sure that you will agree that trading a first rounder this year for a first rounder next year straight up would be a bad deal. That is simple common sense. The question thus is, how valuable were the offerered flipped picks? The answer is simply: not very.

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  4. "Until someone comes up with a new system, it's still the best tool we have"
    Check out Pro Football Prospectus' "Building a Better Draft Value Chart" from last years book. It's a great, great read.

    ReplyDelete