Saturday, April 25, 2009

The Mathews Trade

First the numbers.  According to the traditional draft value chart, the Packers gave up one third round pick too many to move up draft Mathews.  (I know folks quibble about the trade value chart--it certainly isn't perfect--but it is still a pretty good barometer for measuring draft-day trades. )

The Packers cam up 164 points short on the exchange.  This is equivalent to about the 21st pick in the third round.  In other words, all this being equal, the conventional wisdom is that the Packers should have only given up one third rounder to move up. 

This is a total Mike Sherman move.  Sherman would fall in love with players and do whatever it took to move up and draft them.  

And examined in isolation, Sherman was pretty successful with this strategy.   For example, Barnett and Walker both turned into good players.

The problem is that these trades should not be examined in isolation.  Over time Sherman's willingness to part with his picks resulted in a depleted roster.

Now, I don't really worry too much about Thompson getting carried away and trading away draft picks willy-nilly.

Still, I can't say that I am pumped to see Thompson abandon his philosophy of letting the "draft come to him"  in favor of putting all of his eggs in one basket.

Especially when the Packers have a serious need at offensive tackle that will not get addressed in this draft.  (Sure the Packers might draft a developmental player in the later rounds, but they already have enough of those).

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